Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 16.078043 19.504410 23.316817 27.849688 33.067574 38.860831 45.753400
2025-05-04 11.425499 15.944885 21.529785 28.831912 38.010955 49.045745 63.181007
2025-05-11 8.742242 13.641466 20.209760 29.427667 41.769960 57.448091 78.553744
2025-05-18 6.727004 11.621458 18.677715 29.203643 44.061783 63.803058 91.451843
2025-05-25 5.113662 9.759117 16.938787 28.273670 45.057204 68.261374 101.897708
2025-06-01 4.059792 8.504876 15.827344 27.987406 46.758526 73.607615 113.669871
2025-06-08 3.100622 7.168924 14.328675 26.841115 46.966888 76.717927 122.354914
2025-06-15 2.661872 6.675131 14.125039 27.678794 50.183190 84.294917 137.719636
2025-06-22 2.084456 5.757255 13.012815 26.832137 50.608115 87.658175 147.015604
2025-06-29 1.828506 5.454024 12.972693 27.803613 54.010960 95.696279 163.600776
2025-07-06 1.366962 4.547574 11.604290 26.202708 52.936843 96.626519 169.360282
2025-07-13 1.192363 4.293463 11.511493 26.945585 55.907929 104.111178 185.533707
2025-07-20 1.016618 4.014245 11.383994 27.737394 59.263120 112.790848 204.643936
2025-07-27 0.872409 3.781683 11.332632 28.701847 63.060432 122.511101 226.049393
2025-08-03 0.731647 3.504127 11.119503 29.294649 66.196020 131.264019 246.261471
2025-08-10 0.579655 3.119705 10.562350 29.071400 67.742155 137.345274 262.321802
2025-08-17 0.433409 2.674707 9.743290 28.144832 67.813189 140.813853 274.133243
2025-08-24 0.338559 2.375276 9.242415 27.859621 69.103591 146.470075 289.827223
2025-08-31 0.243373 2.003245 8.433660 26.717568 68.520842 148.668763 299.640103
2025-09-07 0.208449 1.905740 8.433137 27.552146 72.119781 158.710987 323.446145
2025-09-14 0.151483 1.635324 7.807183 26.708623 72.050948 161.881675 335.269670
2025-09-21 0.131384 1.574742 7.871736 27.676505 75.995769 172.821146 361.286615
2025-09-28 0.086196 1.284058 7.033259 26.081536 74.095510 172.426725 366.900409